|The Global Commons Institute (42 Windsor Rd, London NW2 505)|
This is for stabilising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. This is the over-riding reason for the retreat from fossil fuel dependency.
The total allowable consumption must be determined by the constraints of the global climate system recognising the objective of the UNFCCC.
All are expressed as carbon emissions equivalent (in gigatonnes carbon Gtc).
The carbon production/consumption budgets shown here are the same in total and consistent with stabilising atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 450 ppmv, 70% over pre-industrial levels.
CONVERGING TO ENTITLEMENTS PROPORTIONAL TO POPULATION BY 2030
. . [internal labels for 'consuming nations' graph above are, bottom to top:] UNITED STATES JAPAN GERMANY UK CANADA ITALY FRANCE AUSTRALIA RUSSIAN FED. UKRAINE CHINA INDIA MEXICO S AFRICA KOREA REP. INDONESIA BRAZIL IRAN - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - . . [the lower image is about the Producers. It is not shown.] PRODUCERS' PROTOCOLS for OIL, GAS and COAL are required for the retreat from fossil fuel dependency. The total allowable production must be determined by the total allowable carbon consumption in the CONSUMPTION PROTOCOL ("CONTRACTION & CONVERGENCE") shown above. However, the OIL and GAS are depleting, shown here at rates projected by Colin Campbell. His all-producer-country OIL depletion data are shown below "GLOBAL GAS" in the chart. The all-producer-country COAL data are shown above "GLOBAL GAS". The COAL is not in depletion. Here it is constrained to being equal to the balance available under the total C&C arrangement above. It is shown as phased out pro rata based on shares of production in 1996. All are expressed as carbon emissions equivalent (in gigatonnes carbon Gtc) Saudi Arabia Iraq Iran Abu Dhabi Kuwait FSU USA GLOBAL GAS • • • • <-- <-- USA China FSU Germany Australia India Poland South Africa . . . . . . . [graph labels below] All-country COAL PHASE-OUT [shown above 'GLOBAL GAS'] combined with OIL & GAS equal for 450 ppmv CO2 concentration [International shares remaining proportional to 1997] GLOBAL GAS DEPLETION (Campbell) All-country OIL DEPLETION (Campbell) [shown below 'GLOBAL GAS'] N.B 2/3rds reserves in the GULF & US oil consumption is twice US oil production[return to top]
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